Here are my 10 predictions for music in 2025
[This was my weekly column for GlobalNews.ca. – AC]
With a fresh year before us, ’tis the season to look ahead at what things we may look forward to over the next 12 months and which things may befall us in the world of music.
1. Possible consolidation within the streaming music business
We’ve all heard of the Big Four of streaming music: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube and Amazon Music. You may have encountered Deezer, Tidal, Napster and Qobuz. We can throw iHeartRadio, Bandcamp, and SoundCloud into the mix. But what about 8Tracks, Boomplay, Jango, LiveOne, Joox, JioSaavn, Patari, KKBox and Hoopla? Those are streaming music services as well.
Some survive because of their special focus on specific areas of the world — China, South Asia and the Middle East, for example — but you have to wonder about the financial viability of the non-Big Four. Given the weirdness of music licensing and the razor-thin margins, how long can these other platforms hold out? Don’t be surprised if we hear of strategic partnerships, buyouts and shutdowns in 2025.
2. Netflix will launch a music streaming division
Just as Bob Dylan wrote “That he not busy being born is busy dying,” from 1965’s It’s Alright, Ma (I’m Only Bleeding), corporations that aren’t busy growing risk dying, too. Netflix is already monstrous, with nearly 300 million subscribers across 190 countries. How does the company keep growing to keep shareholders happy? It’s already cut back investment in original video programming, something that frees up cash for getting into the music streaming game.
Eight more to go. Read all about them here.
Speaking of streaming, I have often wondered why none of the major record labels have tried to do streaming themselves. Like of the 5 major movie studios 4 of them have streaming services (Universal, Disney, Warner, and Paramount). There are only 3 major record labels and none of them are doing what the movie studios are doing. It seems strange.
Antitrust laws. It’s the same reason auto manufacturers are largely prohibited from owning dealerships. That means they can’t work together.
Individual labels could have digital storefronts/streamers. But music fans don’t go to a store/streamer to hear music from just one label. They want EVERYTHING in one place.