What effect will Trump’s tariffs have on the US music business? A lot, it turns out.

It’s a clown show in the White House. Total chaos. Donald Trump is just making things up as he goes along, especially with all this tariff nonsense that’s threatening to crash the world economy. Business people are scrambling to understand what all the new tariffs mean–and that includes the US recorded music business.

Here are some of the things that the American music biz is worried out.

• Higher prices for vinyl (much of the polyvinyl chloride for vinyl comes from outside the US). It’ll soon be rare to find a vinyl record for less than US$35. I’ve seen estimates where the price of vinyl could rise by 24%. (Vinyl already up about 25% from five years ago.)
• The lacquers used to masters for pressing vinyl? From Japan, which was one of just a couple such manufacturing plants in the world.
• The paper/cardboard for album and CD packaging? From Canada.
• Higher prices for imported CDs and records. (This, however, may not happen because of an existing laws that prohibiting the “banning or regulating ‘informational materials’ such as CDs and records. But we’ll see.)
• Higher prices for musical instruments. If they’re not imported directly from, say, Japan, components for instruments assembled in the US are sourced overseas and thus subject to tariffs. This will obviously disproportionally hurt smaller artists who need gear to make a living.
• Higher costs for equipment and production costs. That will be passed on to fans in the form of higher concert tickets.
• Music tourism. Talk to the people in Nashville who welcome music fans from all over the world, especially Canada.
• Less foreign participation in music events (festivals, conferences, etc.)
• Foreign artists will avoid touring the US thereby hurting venues that would normally host them.
• Energy will cost more, so gas for the fan will cost more for everyone.
• Resulting inflation will increase the cost of accommodation.
• Right now, Canada and other countries don’t charge anything (or much) for visas needed by touring musicians. That’s going to change.
• And then there are the foreign artists who can’t get visas because of all the new paperwork.
• Increases costs for festivals that want to attract foreign acts.
• More expensive merch. How many of those t-shirts are made in countries like China?
• Tariffs will hit consumers in everyday life. Will they have any money left for tickets and merch?
• If companies are paying out more in tariffs, will they have money left over for sponsoring concerts and venues?
• And will small venues survive at all?

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